建筑用电动汽车电池化学成分的巨大差异

Author: Dr James Jeffs, Senior Technology Analyst at IDTechEx

电动汽车在建筑行业的成功在很大程度上将取决于电池价格是否足够低，以至于总拥有成本低于柴油替代品。IDTechEx 的新报告《” Electric Vehicles in Construction 2023-2043“表明电池价格存在一个临界点，低于这个临界点，电动汽车的运营就会比同等使用寿命的燃油车更便宜。因此，选择合适的电池化学成分对于获得足够低的车辆价格至关重要。那么，为什么中国和欧洲部署的电池会存在明显的二分法呢？

Number of machines available by battery chemistry and region. Source: IDTechEx

Electric vehicles in construction are an emerging market. Despite this, IDTechEx has built a database of more than 100 example makes and models across seven different construction vehicle categories. However, with lots of vehicles still yet to be released, only 49 database entries have confirmed chemistry information. With Europe and China being more established markets for electric construction vehicles, conclusions about battery chemistry trends from OEMs in these regions can be made. What is obvious at this early stage is that Europe heavily favors NMC, while China has chosen LFP.

Battery Requirements in Construction Vehicles

那么，人们为什么会选择 NMC、LFP，甚至铅酸电池呢？电气化工程机械是一个迷人且复杂的话题。电池的首要需求是低成本的高容量。由于其中一些机器体型巨大，并且通常需要混凝土配重来处理它们遇到的巨大载荷，因此电池的重量并不是主要问题。功率密度也不是首要考虑因素。与电动汽车不同，建筑车辆通常不会出现大的峰值功率需求，而更可能长时间以稳定速率运行。例如，特斯拉 Model S 拥有约 60kWh 的电池和约 210kW 的电机功率，这意味着其电池必须能够以 3.5C 的速率（功率除以容量）输出峰值功率。这是乘用车通常的要求；因此，它们倾向于选择 NMC 等高功率密度的化学电池。相比之下，沃尔沃 L25 Electric（一款电动紧凑型装载机）的电池容量为 40kWh，最大电机功率为 36kW，因此电池仅需以最大 0.9C 的速率放电，远低于乘用车的预期。.

当涉及到真正的大型设备时，情况也是如此。徐工 XE270E 是一款 27 吨的巨型挖掘机，电池容量为 525 千瓦时，但其电机功率仅为可怜的 140 千瓦（约 0.27C）。事实上，IDTechEx 报告《” Electric Vehicles in Construction 2023-2043“，表明绝大多数电动工程车辆的峰值放电需求低于1C，其中四分之一的车辆的峰值放电需求低于0.25C。.

Distribution of discharge requirements in electric construction vehicles. Source: IDTechEx

A low peak discharge requirement can be fulfilled by lead acid batteries, which is likely why it had a brief moment in the sun in the early days of construction electrification. The European examples that used lead acid were mainly from the mid-2010s, at which point lithium-ion technologies were still scaling and were much more expensive than lead acid. However, these vehicles were seriously limited, with low endurance and slow recharge times, making their use a challenge. Lead acid was quickly replaced with lithium-ion as it became more financially viable.

Both NMC and LFP offer the required performance for construction, happily coping with the peak discharging requirements and having high enough volumetric and gravimetric densities to fit in the machines. Speaking broadly, NMC tends to be a higher-performance battery than LFP, with better energy and power densities but coming at a premium. It would make sense then for the industry to select LFP. It offers all the needed performance while helping minimize the premium of building an electric vehicle, the number one priority for electric construction vehicles. Why, then, does the European market mostly use NMC?

Why is NMC dominant in Europe and LFP in China?

最合理的解释是，这主要取决于供应情况。迄今为止，大多数电动车开发项目都采用了Northvolt、Forsee和Volta等电池组供应商，而它们的大部分产品都使用NMC电池。IDTechEx的研究发现，欧洲和北美电池组制造商提供的75%以上产品中，有超过75%采用了NMC电池。这些公司一直为包括公交车和卡车在内的重型公路车辆在内的多个行业提供产品。 此类车辆为应对加速、爬坡等工况，需要相当高的峰值功率，因此更适合采用NMC电池。IDTechEx推测，这正是欧洲迄今主要选择NMC的原因；但鉴于电池价格是工程车成功的关键因素，未来LFP电池的采用率可能会增加。.

与此同时，在中国，磷酸铁锂（LFP）已经是主流的化学成分选择。中国已经拥有充足的磷酸铁锂解决方案供应。随着中国电动汽车保有量的迅速增长，对能够提供可接受的能量密度（续航里程）且能让电动汽车保持价格实惠的廉价解决方案的需求应运而生。相比之下，欧洲和北美电动汽车市场更侧重于最大化续航里程，通常选择更昂贵的镍钴锰（NMC）电池，并预期消费者能够接受更高的成本。这对中国的电动工程行业来说是个好消息，该行业得以快速制造出非常大容量的电池，并部署了一些大型设备，例如前面提到的徐工（XCMG）的例子。.

Unfortunately, there is not much data concerning which North American or APAC-based OEMs favor battery chemistries. This is mostly because OEMs in this region are only just beginning their electrification journeys. North America is a prime example; giants of the industry CAT and John Deere have made a recent push with electric construction vehicles showcased at BAUMA 2022, CES 2023, and CONEXPO 2023. However, these are still some years away from production, and battery chemistries are yet to be confirmed. However, an educated guess would suggest that CAT will likely use NMC for similar reasons to Europe.

Sodium ion, a Future Candidate?

Another possible contender for the construction industry is sodium-ion. This is an emerging chemistry and does not have an established market yet. The key thing to know is that sodium-based solutions can be produced at lower costs than lithium ones, but they will not have the same performance. In this respect, they share the qualities of LFP. The issue is that they are not yet a scaled solution, so they are more expensive than both LFP and NMC while having worse performance. Sodium, therefore, does not make sense in the construction industry for the time being. However, when scaled and delivering the promised price reduction, it could be a prime match for the needs of this nuanced market.

电动建筑行业仍处于起步阶段，量产车辆很少。然而，如果相信近期的活动和公告，那么未来几年可用的机器数量将会激增。在 IDTechEx 的报告《” Electric Vehicles in Construction 2023-2043“据预测，未来10年的复合年增长率（CAGR）将达到37%，到2043年，电动工程机械行业的规模将增长至1500亿美元。这一增长将催生巨大的电池需求，无论采用的是NMC、LFP，还是甚至钠离子电池，该行业的演进都将令人振奋。.

IDTechEx Mobility Research

IDTechEx 正在积极研究自动驾驶和电气化，并刚刚发布了一份新报告《2023-2043 年建筑业电动汽车》。有关该报告的更多信息，包括可下载的样本页面，请访问 www.IDTechEx.com/EVConstruction.

This research forms part of the broader mobility research portfolio from IDTechEx, who track the adoption of autonomy, electric vehicles, automotive semiconductors, battery trends, and demand across land, sea and air, helping you navigate whatever may be ahead. Find out more at www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.

…SP的笔记